<PAGE> 1
EXHIBIT 4
STRESS TABLES
EFFECT OF A PERMANENT CHANGE IN LEASE RENTALS
We have prepared the tables below based on the assumptions, except that we
have varied the revenue received by AerCo Group from lease rentals by the
indicated percentages, beginning in years 3 and 6. If AerCo Group received
actual lease rentals as indicated below and all of the other assumptions
occurred, then the expected maturities and weighted average lives of the
relevant subclasses of notes would be as set forth below.
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF NOTES
ASSUMING A PERMANENT CHANGE IN LEASE RENTALS, BEGINNING IN YEAR 3
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
PERMANENT CHANGE IN LEASE RENTALS
AS A PERCENTAGE OF LEASE RENTALS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BASE CASE +10% BASE CASE +5% BASE CASE BASE CASE -5% BASE CASE -10%
-------------- -------------- ------------ -------------- --------------
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- -----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Subclass A-3......... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Subclass A-4......... 10.8 4.7 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8 10.8 5.0
Subclass B-2......... 7.9 6.7 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
Subclass C-2......... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9
</TABLE>
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF NOTES
ASSUMING A PERMANENT CHANGE IN LEASE RENTALS, BEGINNING IN YEAR 6
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
PERMANENT CHANGE IN LEASE RENTALS
AS A PERCENTAGE OF LEASE RENTALS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BASE CASE +10% BASE CASE +5% BASE CASE BASE CASE -5% BASE CASE -10%
-------------- -------------- ------------ -------------- --------------
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- -----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Subclass A-3......... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Subclass A-4......... 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8
Subclass B-2......... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
Subclass C-2......... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
</TABLE>
31
<PAGE> 2
EFFECT OF PERMANENT DECLINE IN PORTFOLIO VALUE
If the value of the portfolio, as adjusted for our appraisals, becomes
significantly less than the value of the portfolio based on the assumptions, the
Scheduled Principal Payment Amount payable to holders of the class A notes may
be increased. Payment of this increased amount may shorten the weighted average
lives of the class A notes and lengthen the weighted average lives of the
subclasses of notes that rank behind the class A notes in priority of payment.
The following tables show the expected maturity and weighted average life of
each subclass of notes if the adjusted portfolio value permanently declined to a
given percentage of the assumed portfolio value, beginning in years 1 and 5.
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF NOTES
ASSUMING A PERMANENT CHANGE IN PORTFOLIO VALUE, BEGINNING IN YEAR 1
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO VALUE AS A PERCENTAGE OF
ASSUMED PORTFOLIO VALUE BEGINNING IN YEAR 1
-----------------------------------------------------
100%* 90% 80% 70%
----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Subclass A-3.................................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Subclass A-4.................................... 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.7 10.8 4.1 10.8 4.0
Subclass B-2.................................... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9
Subclass C-2.................................... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.2 7.9 7.6
</TABLE>
---------------
* Base Case
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF NOTES
ASSUMING A PERMANENT CHANGE IN PORTFOLIO VALUE, BEGINNING IN YEAR 5
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO VALUE AS A PERCENTAGE OF
ASSUMED PORTFOLIO VALUE BEGINNING IN YEAR 5
-----------------------------------------------------
100%* 90% 80% 70%
----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Subclass A-3.................................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Subclass A-4.................................... 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.8 10.8 4.6 10.8 4.6
Subclass B-2.................................... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9
Subclass C-2.................................... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.1 7.9 7.3
</TABLE>
---------------
* Base Case
EFFECT OF CYCLICAL VARIATIONS IN LEASE RENTALS AND PORTFOLIO VALUE --
"RECESSION SCENARIOS"
Historically, the aviation industry has experienced cyclical swings in the
supply and demand for aircraft. Operating lease companies, such as members of
AerCo Group, would be negatively affected by a decline in the demand for
aircraft. We have assumed that such a decline in demand or "recession" (as used
in this discussion) will result in a decline in aircraft values and an increase
in defaults and downtime, and a decline in operating lease rates. In that case,
lease rentals would decline.
We have prepared the following tables to show the effect on assumed
maturities and weighted average lives of the subclass B-2 and subclass C-2 notes
if recessions of different lengths were to occur in the future. In preparing the
following tables, we have assumed that a recession would have the following
effect on the operations of AerCo Group:
- Aircraft values would fall on the first day of the recession to a given
percentage of the assumed portfolio value. This decrease would trigger an
increase in scheduled principal payment amounts being paid if amounts are
available.
32
<PAGE> 3
- After a period of two years following the first day of the recession,
lease rentals fall by a given percentage as aircraft are re-leased or
lessees default. This would result in less cash flow being available to
make payments of interest and principal on the notes.
- The recession lasts a given period of time. Afterwards, the adjusted
portfolio value returns to the assumed portfolio value on the first day
after the recession. Two years following the end of the recession, lease
rentals return to the assumed case.
- Actual experience will likely differ from the assumptions we have used in
preparing the following tables. Specifically, we can give no assurance
that periods of weak traffic growth and lower demand for aircraft will be
followed by periods of strong growth and high demand for aircraft nor can
it be assured that following a recession aircraft values and lease
rentals will return to assumed case levels. Because actual experience
will likely differ from these assumptions, the actual maturities and
weighted average lives of the notes will likely differ from what is shown
in the tables below.
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF SUBCLASS B-2
NOTES ASSUMING A RECESSION LASTING THREE YEARS
<TABLE>
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
DECLINE IN LEASE RENTALS AS A PERCENTAGE
OF LEASE RENTALS........................ BASE CASE BASE CASE - 5% BASE CASE - 10%
ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO VALUE AS A PERCENTAGE
OF ASSUMED PORTFOLIO VALUE.............. 100% 90% 80%
</TABLE>
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- --- ---- --- ---- ---
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Recession begins at start of Year....... 1 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9
3 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9
5 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9
10 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
</TABLE>
33
<PAGE> 4
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF SUBCLASS B-2
NOTES ASSUMING A RECESSION LASTING FIVE YEARS
<TABLE>
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
DECLINE IN LEASE RENTALS AS A PERCENTAGE
OF LEASE RENTALS........................ BASE CASE BASE CASE - 5% BASE CASE - 10%
ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO VALUE AS A PERCENTAGE
OF ASSUMED PORTFOLIO VALUE.............. 100% 90% 80%
</TABLE>
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- --- ---- --- ---- ---
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Recession begins at start of Year....... 1 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9
3 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 6.9
5 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9
10 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
</TABLE>
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF SUBCLASS C-2
NOTES ASSUMING A RECESSION LASTING THREE YEARS
<TABLE>
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
DECLINE IN LEASE RENTALS AS A BASE BASE
PERCENTAGE OF LEASE RENTALS........ BASE CASE CASE - 5% CASE - 10%
ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO VALUE AS A
PERCENTAGE OF ASSUMED VALUE........ 100% 90% 80%
</TABLE>
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Recession begins at start of Year.... 1 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
3 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.0
5 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.1
10 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
</TABLE>
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF SUBCLASS C-2
NOTES ASSUMING A RECESSION LASTING FIVE YEARS
<TABLE>
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
DECLINE IN LEASE RENTALS AS A BASE BASE
PERCENTAGE OF LEASE RENTALS........ BASE CASE CASE - 5% CASE - 10%
ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO VALUE AS A
PERCENTAGE OF ASSUMED VALUE........ 100% 90% 80%
</TABLE>
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Recession begins at start of Year.... 1 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.9 7.9 7.0
3 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.4
5 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.3
10 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.8
</TABLE>
EFFECT OF PRINCIPAL ALLOCATION ACCORDING TO THE EXTENDED POOL FACTOR ONLY
If available collections on a payment date are not sufficient to pay the
principal amount that is to be paid on a class of notes on that payment date
according to the order of priorities, then the available collections will be
allocated to the subclasses in that class of notes which has a priority.
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<PAGE> 5
We have prepared this table to show the effect of this allocation on the
expected maturities and the weighted average lives of subclass A-4 notes if:
- we issue additional notes to finance the acquisition of additional
aircraft in the future but
- AerCo Group's lease rentals are sufficient only to pay down the principal
of those subclasses of notes in first priority for allocation of
principal.
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
EXTENDED POOL
BASE CASE FACTOR
-------------- --------------
EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- ---- ---- ----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Subclass A-4.......................................... 10.8 4.8 11.8 5.9
</TABLE>
EFFECTS OF NON-DELIVERY OF ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT
The following table shows the effect that the non-delivery of remaining
aircraft (expressed as a percentage of the Initial Appraised Value) would have
on the expected maturities and weighted average lives of the notes.
EXPECTED MATURITIES AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE LIVES OF NOTES
ASSUMING NON DELIVERY OF REMAINING AIRCRAFT BY STATED PERCENTAGE AT YEAR ONE
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
BASE CASE BASE CASE +10% BASE CASE +20% BASE CASE +50%
-------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG EXP AVG
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Subclass A-3......... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
Subclass A-4......... 10.8 4.8 9.7 3.5 7.8 2.4 1.0 0.9
Subclass B-2......... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.4 7.9 5.8 7.9 4.1
Subclass C-2......... 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.2 7.9 5.6 7.9 3.9
</TABLE>
35
