COMMERCE GROUP INC /MA
10-Q, 1995-11-14
FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION          
Washington, D.C.  20549          
          
          
FORM 10-Q          
          
          
Quarterly Report Under Section 13 or 15(d)          
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934          
          
          
          
For Quarter Ended September 30, 1995            Commission File Number 0-     
16882          
          
          
          
       THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC.             	          
          
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)          
          
          
          
  Massachusetts                           04-2599931          
 (State or other                         (IRS Employer          
  jurisdiction                            Identification          
  of Incorporation)                       No.)          
          
          
  211 Main Street   Webster, Massachusetts       01570          
          
  (Address of principal executive offices)     (Zip Code)          
          
          
          
Registrant's telephone number, including area code:  (508) 943-9000          
          
          
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all          
reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities     
Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such          
shorter period that the registrant was required to file such           
reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the     
past 90 days.                  Yes X    No___          
          
          
As of November 1, 1995, the number of shares outstanding of the         
registrant's common stock (excluding Treasury Shares) was 37,145,867.    
          
          
Page 1 of 16          
          
          
          
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
          
          
Table of Contents          
          
          
          
												  Page No.       
Part I - Financial Information          
          
          
Consolidated Balance Sheets at          
    September 30, 1995 (Unaudited) and December 31, 1994.....	  3          
          
Consolidated Statements of Earnings for the          
    Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 1995 and 1994         
    (Unaudited) .............................................	  4          
          
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows for the          
    Nine Months Ended September 30, 1995 and 1994          
   (Unaudited)...............................................	  5          
          
Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements.........	  6          
          
Management's Discussion and Analysis.........................	  8          
          
          
          
          
Part II - Other Information          
          
          
Item 6          
    Exhibits and Reports on Form 8-K.........................	16          
          
Signature....................................................	16          
          
          
          
          
- - - 2 -          
          
          
THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES          
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS          
(Thousands of Dollars)          
          
                                        September 30,   December 31,          
                                           1995            1994          
                                       (Unaudited)          
                               ASSETS          
    Investments:          
      Fixed maturities, at market (cost:  $830,825 in 1995 and $801,376 in     
1994).......................   $  825,747              
$  745,010          
      Equity securities, at market (cost:  $130,740 in 1995 and $104,117  
in          
1994)......................      138,549                  
95,230          
      Mortgage loans on real estate (less allowance for possible loan  
losses of          
$2,526 in 1995 and          
        $2,759 in          
1994)................................................................. 
 ........         
 ...       68,653                  
57,031          
      Collateral notes receivable (less allowance of $500 in 1995 and in 
1994).........................        1,984                   
1,559          
      Investments in real          
estate................................................................. 
 ...                   
327                     
216	          
          Total          
investments............................................................ 
 ........         
 .....    1,035,260                 
899,046          
          
    Cash and cash          
equivalents............................................................ 
 ........         
 ...       11,336                   
5,485          
    Accrued investment          
income................................................................. 
 ......                
14,737                  
13,440          
    Premiums receivable (less allowance for doubtful receivables of $1,105  
in 1995          
and $1,120 in 1994).      142,036                 
102,529          
    Deferred policy acquisition          
costs................................................................. 
68,639                  
56,769          
    Property and equipment, net of accumulated          
depreciation............................................       31,229  
30,610          
    Due from          
reinsurers............................................................ 
 ........       17,303                  
16,892          
    Residual market          
receivable............................................................ 
 ........         
 .      208,667                 
214,818          
    Current income          
taxes................................................................. 
 ........         
 ..        1,163                     
- - -            
    Deferred income          
taxes................................................................. 
 ........         
 .       10,157                  
37,791	          
             
Goodwill.............................................................. 
 ........         
 .................        1,409                     
- - -   	          
          
          Total          
assets................................................................ 
 ........         
 .....   $1,541,936              
$1,377,380	          
          
          
                      LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY          
    Liabilities          
      Losses and loss adjustment          
expenses.............................................................. 
   $     614,406        $  592,373          
      Unearned          
premiums.......................................................      
 ..........      356,801           314,719          
      Current income          
taxes............................................................... 
 ........                   
- - -                     
9,817          
      Deferred          
income.............................................................. 
 ........         
 ......        9,856                  
10,451          
      Contingent commissions          
accrued............................................................. 
26,681                  
24,450          
      Other liabilities and accrued          
expenses........................................................... 
18,057            11,981	          
      
          Total          
liabilities........................................................  
 ........         
 .....    1,025,801                 
963,791	          
          
          
    Stockholders' equity          
      Preferred stock, authorized 5,000,000 shares at $1.00 par value;  
none issued          
in 1995 and 1994....          -                       
- - -          
      Common stock, authorized 100,000,000 shares at $.50 par value;  
        issued and outstanding 38,000,000 shares in 1995 and       
1994......................................       19,000              
19,000          
      Paid-in          
capital.........................................................   
 ............       29,621            29,621          
      Net unrealized gains (losses) on investments, net of income taxes  
(benefits)          
of $956 in 1995          
        and ($22,839) in 1994....................................    
1,775           (42,414)          
      Retained earnings..........................................    
 ..............      481,377           407,382      
										                 
531,773                 
413,589          
       Treasury stock, 854,133 shares in 1995 and none in          
1994.........................................      (15,638)         
- - -   	          
          
          Total stockholders'          
equity.......................................................       
516,135           413,589	          
          
          Total liabilities and stockholders'          
equity...................................................      
  $1,541,936        $1,377,380      
      
      
      
      
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated    
financial statements.          
								- 3 -          
     
      
      
THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES          
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS          
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 1995 and 1994          
(Thousands of Dollars Except Per Share Data)          
(Unaudited)          
          
          
								    Three Months Ended	 
	             
Nine  Months            
Ended          
								      September 30,        
	                
September 30,               
	          
          
								    1995  	  1994  	        
	             
1995  	            
1994  	          
    Revenues          
      Earned premiums ..........................................    $     
149,716             
$  149,727	 $  437,835    $            
423,867          
      Net investment income.....................................          
18,335                 
15,826	     51,995                  
44,849          
      Premium finance fees......................................          
4,869                  
4,814	     14,704                  
14,393          
      Net realized investment gains.............................          
1,229                     
49	        456                  
45,971          
          
               Total revenues...................................          
174,149                
170,416	    504,990                 
529,080          
          
    Expenses          
      Losses and loss adjustment expenses.......................          
91,526                 
95,859	    271,381                 
287,625          
      Policy acquisition costs..................................          
43,073                 
38,446	    124,685                 
111,832          
          
               Total expenses...................................          
134,599                
134,305	    396,066                 
399,457          
          
          
               Earnings before income taxes.....................          
39,550                 
36,111	    108,924                 
129,623          
          
    Income taxes................................................          
10,703                  
9,772	     28,519                  
37,653          
          
               NET EARNINGS..................................... $        
28,847             
$   26,339	 $   80,405    $             
91,970	          
          
          
               NET EARNINGS PER WEIGHTED AVERAGE COMMON SHARE...  $      
 .77             
$      .69	 $     2.13    $               
2.42 	          
          
    Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding........    
37,478,513             
38,000,000	 37,824,261              
38,000,000	          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated    
financial          
statements.          
- - - 4 -          
          
          
THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES          
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS          
Nine Months Ended September 30, 1995 and 1994          
(Thousands of Dollars)          
(Unaudited)          
          
												  1995     
		            
1994          
    Cash flows from operating activities:          
      Net          
earnings................................................        
 ...         
		$ 80,405  	$           
91,970          
      Adjustments to reconcile net earnings to net cash provided by   
operating          
activities:          
        Premiums          
receivable..............................................	        
	          
(39,507)  	           
(32,175)          
        Deferred policy acquisition          
costs.........................................		 (11,870)  	  
(14,153)          
        Residual market          
receivable......................................................		  
6,151           
	            
(7,712)          
        Due to/from          
reinsurers.........................................		            
(411)  	           
(13,133)          
        Losses and loss adjustment          
expenses.............................................		  22,033   	 
21,225          
        Unearned          
premiums...............................................................	 
	           
42,082   	            
66,729          
        Current income          
taxes............................................................		 
(10,980)          
	            
12,860          
        Deferred income          
taxes...........................................................		      
5,751             
	            
(7,848)          
        Deferred          
income.................................................................	 
	             
(595)  	             
3,560          
        Other liabilities and accrued          
expenses..........................................		   6,898  	 
29,983          
        Net realized investment          
gains...................................................		    (456)  
	           
(45,971)          
        Other -          
net.....................................................................	 
	  (1,690)	             
6,955          
          
               Net cash provided by operating          
activities................................		  97,811		           
112,290          
          
    Cash flows from investing activities:          
      Proceeds from  maturity of fixed           
maturities......................................		  19,155  	      
49,030          
      Proceeds from sale of fixed           
maturities...........................................		  45,926  	 
117,950          
      Purchase of fixed           
maturities.....................................................		      
(93,927)          
	(316,347)          
      Purchase of equity          
securities.....................................................		      
(32,211)         
	           
(24,986)          
      Proceeds from sale of equity          
securities...........................................		   5,091 	      
57,122          
      Payments received on  mortgage loans on real          
estate...............................		   6,886  	             
6,461          
      Mortgage loans on real estate          
originated..........................................		 (20,127)	      
(12,752)          
      Mortgages sold to investors in the secondary          
market...............................		   2,361		             
8,089          
      Payments received on collateral notes          
receivable..................................		     315		           
339          
      Collateral notes receivable          
originated............................................		    (740)	      
(145)          
      Proceeds from sale of real estate acquired by          
foreclosures........................		     275		             
1,508          
      Purchase of property and equipment          
 ...............................................		  (3,030)	           
(4,291)          
      Proceeds from sale of property and          
equipment......................................		     114 	           
228          
          
               Net cash used in investing          
activities....................................		 (69,912)          
	(117,794)          
          
          
    Cash flows from financing activities:          
      Dividends paid to          
stockholders....................................................		      
(6,410)          
	            
(3,800)          
      Purchase of treasury          
stock........................................................		      
(15,638)          
	               
- - -   	          
          
               Net cash used in financing          
activities....................................		 (22,048) 	      
(3,800)          
          
          
          
    Increase (decrease) in cash and cash          
equivalents....................................		   5,851		      
(9,304)          
    Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of          
period....................................		   5,485		           
13,217          
    Cash and cash equivalents at end of          
period..........................................		$ 11,336		$     
3,913          
          
          
          
          
          
          
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial  
statements.     
- - - 5 -          
          
          
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
NOTES TO UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS          
          
          
 1.	The financial information has been prepared on a basis consistent with  
the accounting principles reflected in the audited consolidated      
financial statements for the year ended December 31, 1994.  Certain      
information and footnote disclosures normally included in financial      
statements prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting      
principles have been omitted pursuant to the Securities and Exchange      
Commission rules and regulations, although the Company believes the      
disclosures which have been made are adequate to make the information      
presented not misleading.          
          
 2.	The information furnished includes all adjustments and accruals      
consisting only of normal recurring adjustments which are, in the      
opinion of management, necessary for a fair presentation of results for  
the interim periods.  Certain 1994 account balances have been      
reclassified to conform to the current year's presentation.      
          
 3.	The consolidated financial statements should be read in      
conjunction with the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the  
Securities and Exchange Commission.      
          
 4.	Neither the results for the nine months ended September 30, 1995 nor  
comparison with the corresponding nine months ended September 30,      
1994 should be considered indicative of the results which may be      
expected for the year ending December 31, 1995.      
     
 5.	The Company which had announced the proposed acquisition of Western  
Pioneer Insurance Company located in Pleasanton, California during the    
second quarter, completed the transaction on August 31, 1995.  The      
Company's long-term growth strategy is to expand outside of      
Massachusetts through acquisitions of smaller automobile companies that   
are in need of capital, have established management in place and present  
significant growth opportunities in their market areas.  In addition,     
the Company is pursuing licenses in the states of New Hampshire, Rhode    
Island and Connecticut through The Commerce Insurance Company.   
     
 6.	In May 1995, the Board of Directors announced that it had approved a  
stock buyback program of up to 3 million shares.  As of September 30,  
1995, 854,133 shares of Treasury Stock were purchased under the program.  
     
 7.	Through the third quarter, the Company's primary property & casualty  
insurance subsidiary, The Commerce Insurance Company, signed group  
marketing agreements with five AAA Automobile Clubs in Massachusetts to  
offer a 10% discount on automobile insurance to clubs' members.  These  
AAA clubs have approximately 1.1 million members who may be eligible for  
the discount.     
     
 8.	During the third quarter, the Company received state regulatory      
approval    
to eliminate interest based premium finance fees for both new and renewal  
personal      
automobile insurance policies with effective dates on or after January     
1, 1996.  These premium finance fees will be phased out in 1996 and be     
replaced with a "late payment" fee based system (see Page 13 of Liquidity  
and Capital Resources).   
     
     
     
- - - 6 -     
The Commerce Group, Inc.     
     
NOTES TO UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - Cont.     
          
          
 9.	Disclosure of supplemental cash flow information:     
          
									Nine Months Ended     
									   September 30,     
									  1995      1994     
          
	Cash paid during the period for:     
	   Federal and state income taxes					$35,814	   
$32,700          
	   State premium and related taxes          
	    of insurance subsidiaries       				 13,397	   
13,997          
          
	Non-cash investing and financing activities:          
	   Real estate acquired by foreclosure				    534	   
1,383     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
- - - 7 -          
     
     
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS          
          
Three months ended September 30, 1995 compared to          
three months ended September 30, 1994          
          
Direct premiums written during the third quarter of 1995 decreased      
$322,000, or 0.2% to $137,597,000, as compared to the same period in 1994.  
The decrease was primarily attributable to a $637,000, or 0.6% decrease in  
direct premiums written for personal automobile insurance. This decrease in  
personal automobile direct premiums written resulted primarily from a 3.0%  
decrease in the average personal automobile premium per exposure (each    
vehicle insured).  This is a direct result of the 6.1% overall average rate  
decrease in the industry's 1995 personal automobile premiums approved by  
the Massachusetts Commissioner of Insurance ("Commissioner").  In addition,  
the number of personal automobile exposures written increased by  
approximately 2.4%.  Direct premiums written for commercial automobile  
insurance decreased by $722,000, or 7.6% due primarily to a 4.9% decrease  
in the number of policies written, as well as a 2.7% decrease in the  
average commercial automobile premium per policy.  Direct premiums written  
for homeowners insurance (excluding Massachusetts Fair Plan) increased by  
$512,000, or 3.8% due primarily to a 5.6% increase in the average premium  
per homeowners policy, offset by a 1.8% decrease in the number of policies  
written.     
          
Net premiums written during the third quarter of 1995 increased $2,585,000  
or 2.0% as compared to 1994.  The increase in net premiums written was due  
to the effect of reinsurance, offset by changes in direct premiums written  
as described above.  Written premiums assumed from the Commonwealth      
Automobile Reinsurers ("C.A.R.") decreased $2,750,000 or 11.0% and written  
premiums ceded to C.A.R. decreased $5,934,000, or 24.4% as compared to the  
third quarter of 1994, as a result of changes in the industry's and the     
Company's utilization of C.A.R. reinsurance.  Premiums ceded to reinsurers  
other than C.A.R. increased $275,000, or 3.6% as compared to the same      
period in 1994.          
          
Earned premiums decreased $11,000 during the third quarter of 1995 as      
compared to the same period of 1994.  Earned premiums assumed from C.A.R.   
increased $1,606,000, or 7.1% during the third quarter of 1995 compared to  
the same period in 1994.  This was offset by a decrease of $1,617,000, or   
1.3% in earned premiums on all other business.          
          
Net investment income increased $2,509,000, or 15.9%, compared to the third  
quarter of 1994, principally as a result of an increase in average invested  
assets (at cost) of 15.4% when compared to the third quarter ended   
September, 1994.  Annualized net      
investment income as a percentage of total average investments was 7.1%      
during the three months ended September, 1995 as compared to 7.0% during     
the same period in 1994.          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
- - - 8 -          
          
          
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued)          
          
Premium finance fees increased $55,000, or 1.1% during the third quarter of  
1995 as compared to the same period in 1994.  The increase was primarily     
attributable to the net effect of the increase in policies on direct bill    
and changes in the direct bill payment program such as decreased down      
payment and a longer payment period, offset by a decrease in direct      
premiums written.          
          
Net realized investment gains totaled $1,229,000 during the third quarter   
of 1995 as compared to net realized gains of $49,000, for the same period   
in 1994.  The realized gains in the third quarter of 1995 were primarily   
the result of sales of tax-exempt bonds.          
          
Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred as a percentage of insurance  
premiums earned ("loss ratio") decreased to 61.3% for the third quarter of  
1995 as compared to 64.2% for the same period in 1994.  The ratio of net    
incurred losses, excluding LAE, to premiums earned ("pure loss ratio") on   
personal automobile increased to 57.9% compared to 50.9% in the third      
quarter of 1994.  This increase was primarily due to adverse loss      
experience on personal automobile business assumed from C.A.R.  The      
commercial automobile pure loss ratio decreased to 46.1% compared to 80.4%  
during the third quarter of 1994.  This decrease was primarily due to      
favorable loss experience in the liability component on the retained      
commercial automobile business, as well as improved loss experience on     
commercial automobile business assumed from C.A.R.  For homeowners, the    
pure loss ratio decreased to 32.8% compared to 95.9% during the third      
quarter of 1994.  This decrease is due to the mild weather during 1995,    
compared to the adverse loss experience in both of the liability and      
property components, during the same period in 1994.          
          
Policy acquisition costs increased by 12.0% during the third quarter of    
1995 compared to the same period in 1994.  This increase is primarily due  
to the increase in the 1995 commission rate for personal automobile      
insurance and additional agents profit sharing compensation.  The      
Commissioner approved an increase in the 1995 commission rate for personal  
automobile to 15.3% compared to 13.5% in 1994.          
          
Net earnings increased $2,508,000 during the third quarter of 1995 as      
compared to the same period in 1994, as a result of the factors mentioned  
above.          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
- - - 9 -          
          
          
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS          
          
Nine months ended September 30, 1995 compared to          
nine months ended September 30, 1994          
          
Direct premiums written during the first nine months of 1995 decreased    
$13,679,000 or 2.7% to $487,013,000, as compared to the same period in     
1994.  The decrease was primarily attributable to a $14,717,000, or 3.6%   
decrease in direct premiums written for personal automobile insurance. This  
decrease in personal automobile direct premiums written resulted primarily  
from a 3.3% decrease in the average personal automobile premium per      
exposure (each vehicle insured).  This is a direct result of the 6.1%      
overall average rate decrease in the industry's 1995 personal automobile    
premiums approved by the Commissioner.  In addition, the number of personal  
automobile exposures written decreased by approximately 0.3%.  Direct      
premiums written for commercial automobile insurance decreased by      
$1,080,000, or 2.9% due primarily to a 4.4% decrease in the number of      
policies written, offset by a 1.5% increase in the average commercial      
automobile premium per policy.  Direct premiums written for homeowners     
insurance (excluding Massachusetts Fair Plan) increased by $941,000, or    
2.6% due primarily to a 5.1% increase in the average premium per homeowners  
policy, offset by a 2.5% decrease in the number of policies written.      
          
Net premiums written during the first nine months of 1995 increased      
$833,000 or 0.2% as compared to 1994.  The increase in net premiums written  
was due to the effects of reinsurance, offset by changes in direct premiums  
written as described above.  Written premiums assumed from C.A.R. increased  
$2,520,000, or 3.4% and written premiums ceded to C.A.R. decreased           
$12,767,000, or 16.4% as compared to the first nine months of 1994, as a     
result of changes in the industry's and the Company's utilization of C.A.R.  
reinsurance.  Premiums ceded to reinsurers other than C.A.R. increased      
$774,000, or 3.6% as compared to the same period in 1994.          
          
Earned premiums increased $13,968,000, or 3.3% during the first nine months  
of 1995 as compared to the same period of 1994.  Earned premiums assumed     
from C.A.R. increased $17,336,000, or 32.3% during the first nine months of  
1995 compared to the same period in 1994.  This was offset by a decrease of  
$3,366,000 or 0.9% in earned premiums on all other business.          
          
Net investment income increased $7,146,000, or 15.9%, compared to the first  
nine months of 1994, principally as a result of an increase in average      
invested assets (at cost) of 15.4% when compared to the nine months ended   
September, 1994.  Annualized net      
investment income as a percentage of total average investments was 6.9%      
during the nine months ended September, 1995 as compared to 7.0% during the  
same period in 1994.          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
- - - 10 -          
          
          
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued)          
          
          
Premium finance fees increased $311,000, or 2.2% during the first nine     
months of 1995 as compared to the same period of 1994.  The increase was    
primarily attributable to the net effect of the increase in policies on     
direct bill and changes in the direct bill payment program, offset by      
decreases in direct premiums written and premium finance fees refunded due  
to the personal automobile rate decrease.          
          
Net realized investment gains totalled $456,000 during the first nine      
months of 1995 as compared to net realized investment gains of $45,971,000  
for the same period in 1994.  The realized gains in the first nine months   
of 1994 were primarily the result of sales of common stocks and tax-exempt  
bonds.  Net realized gains in 1994 on the sale of common stock amounted to  
$36,789,000, while net realized gains on the sale of tax-exempt bonds      
amounted to $9,449,000.          
          
Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred as a percentage of insurance   
premiums earned ("loss ratio") decreased to 62.1% for the first nine months  
of 1995 as compared to 68.0% for the same period in 1994.  The ratio of net  
incurred losses, excluding LAE, to premiums earned ("pure loss ratio") on    
personal automobile increased to 57.7% compared to 56.0% in the first nine   
months of 1994.  This increase was primarily due to adverse loss experience  
on personal automobile business assumed from C.A.R., offset by improved      
loss experience in the liability component of the personal automobile book   
of business.  The commercial automobile pure loss ratio decreased to 53.0%   
compared to 63.1% during the first nine months of 1994.  This decrease was   
primarily due to favorable loss experience in the liability component on     
the retained commercial automobile business, as well as improved loss      
experience on commercial automobile business assumed from C.A.R.  For      
homeowners, the pure loss ratio decreased to 45.4% compared to 104.4%      
through the first nine months of 1994.  This decrease is due primarily to    
the mild weather during the first nine months of 1995, compared to the      
adverse weather experienced during the first nine months of 1994.      
          
Policy acquisition costs increased by 11.5% during the first nine months of  
1995 compared to the same period in 1994.  This increase is primarily due    
to the increase in the accrual for agents profit sharing compensation as a   
result of the impact of the continued mild weather on the Company's loss     
ratio.  Agent's profit sharing compensation is based in part on the      
underwriting profits of agency business written by the Company.  In      
addition, the Commissioner approved an increase in the 1995 commission rate  
for personal automobile to 15.3% compared to 13.5% in 1994.      
          
While net earnings decreased $11,565,000 during the first nine months of     
1995 as compared to the same period in 1994, net earnings exclusive of the   
after tax impact of net realized investment gains increased      
$18,020,000.  These changes were the result of the factors mentioned above.  
          
          
          
          
          
          
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The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued)          
          
          
Liquidity and Capital Resources          
          
The focus of the discussion of liquidity and capital resources is the      
Consolidated Balance Sheets on page 3 and the Consolidated Statements of     
Cash Flows on page 5.  Stockholders' equity increased by $102,546,000, or    
24.8%, during the first nine months of 1995.  This increase was the result   
of net earnings of $80,405,000, the change in net unrealized gains/losses,   
net of income tax benefits, on fixed maturities and equity securities of     
$44,189,000, offset by dividends paid to stockholders of $6,410,000, and     
treasury stock purchased of $15,638,000.  Total assets at September 30,      
1995 increased by $164,556,000, or 12.0%, to $1,541,936,000 as compared to   
total assets of $1,377,380,000 at December 31, 1994.  The majority of this   
growth is reflected in the decrease in unrealized losses on fixed      
maturities and equity securities of $67,984,000, increases of $5,851,000,    
or 106.7% in cash and cash equivalents, $39,507,000, or 38.5% in premiums    
receivable, $11,870,000, or 20.9% in deferred policy acquisition costs and   
by increases in all other assets of $39,344,000.          
          
Periodically, sales have been made from the Company's fixed maturity      
investment portfolio to actively manage portfolio risks, including credit-   
related concerns and matching of asset and liability cash flows, to      
optimize tax planning and to realize gains.  This practice will continue in  
the future.          
          
As of September 30, 1995, the book value of the Company's fixed maturity     
portfolio exceeded its market value by $5,078,000 ($3,301,000 after taxes,   
or $.09 per share), compared to $56,366,000 ($36,638,000 after taxes, or     
$.96 per share) as of December 31, 1994.          
          
Mortgage loans on real estate increased $11,622,000 or 20.4%, during the     
first nine months of 1995 compared to a decrease of $4,259,000, or 6.9%      
during the same period in 1994.  In addition to loans added to the      
portfolio, the Company still sells loans without recourse to secondary      
market investors.          
          
The Company's liabilities totalled $1,025,801,000 at September 30, 1995 as   
compared to $963,791,000 at December 31, 1994.  The $62,010,000, or 6.4%,    
increase was comprised of a $22,033,000, or 3.7% increase in losses and      
loss adjustment expenses, an increase of $42,082,000, or 13.4%, in unearned  
premiums, offset by a $2,105,000, or 3.7% decrease in all other           
liabilities.          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
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The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued)          
          
The primary sources of the Company's liquidity are funds generated from     
insurance premiums, premium finance fees, net investment income and      
maturing investments as reflected in the Consolidated Statements of Cash    
Flows on page 5.  During the third quarter, the Company received state      
regulatory approval to eliminate interest based premium finance fees for   
both new and      
renewal personal automobile insurance policies with effective dates on or   
after January 1, 1996.  As a result, interest based premium finance fees   
will be phased      
out in 1996 and be replaced with a "late payment" fee based system.  It is  
estimated that      
the overall impact will result in a 50% reduction in premium finance fee    
income in 1996.          
          
The Company's operating activities provided net cash of $97,811,000 in the  
first nine months of 1995 as compared to $112,290,000 in 1994.  These cash  
flows were primarily impacted by the Company's decreased writings      
attributable to the personal automobile premium rate decrease mentioned     
previously.          
          
The net cash flows used in investing activities were primarily the result   
of purchases of fixed maturities, equity securities and mortgage loans,     
offset by proceeds from the sale and maturity of fixed maturities.     
Investing activities were funded by the cash provided by operating      
activities during 1995 and 1994.          
          
Cash flows used in financing activities totaled $22,048,000 during the      
first nine months of 1995 compared to $3,800,000 during the same period in  
1994.  This is primarily due to the purchase of 854,133 shares of Treasury  
Stock under the Company's stock buyback program approved by the Board of    
Directors during the second quarter.          
          
The Company's funds are generally invested in securities with maturities    
intended to provide adequate funds to pay claims without the forced sale of  
investments.  At September 30, 1995, the Company held cash and cash      
equivalents of approximately $11,336,000.  These funds provide sufficient   
liquidity for the payment of claims and other short-term cash needs.  The   
Company relies upon dividends from its subsidiaries for its cash      
requirements.  Every domestic insurance company seeking to make any      
dividend or other distributions to its stockholders must file a report with  
the Commissioner.  An extraordinary dividend is any dividend or other      
property, whose fair value together with other dividends or distributions   
made within the preceding twelve months exceeds the greater of ten percent  
of the insurer's surplus as regards policyholders as of the end of the      
preceding year, or the net income of a non-life insurance company for the   
preceding year.  No pro-rata distribution of any class of the insurer's own  
securities is to be included.  No domestic insurance company shall pay an   
extraordinary dividend or other extraordinary distribution until thirty     
days after the Commissioner has received notice of the intended      
distribution and has not objected.          
          
Industry and regulatory guidelines suggest that the ratio of a property and  
casualty insurer's annual net written premiums to statutory policyholders'   
surplus should not exceed 3.00 to 1.00.  The Company's statutory premiums    
to surplus ratio was 1.45 to 1.00 and 1.86 to 1.00 for the twelve months     
ended September 30, 1995 and 1994, respectively.          
          
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The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued)          
          
          
Recent Significant Events          
          
Most recently, the Company's primary property & casualty insurance      
subsidiary The Commerce Insurance Company, signed group marketing      
agreements with five AAA Automobile Clubs in Massachusetts to offer a 10%   
discount on automobile insurance to the clubs' members.  Membership in      
these clubs is estimated to represent approximately one-third of the      
Massachusetts motoring public, and the Company expects to significantly     
increase its Massachusetts private passenger automobile insurance writings  
as a result of this program.          
          
The Company, which had announced the acquisition of Western Pioneer      
Insurance Company located in Pleasanton, California during the second      
quarter, completed the transaction on August 31, 1995.  The Company's long  
term growth strategy is to expand outside Massachusetts through           
acquisitions of smaller automobile companies that are in need of capital,   
have established management in place and present significant growth      
opportunities in their market areas.  In addition, the Company is pursuing  
licenses in the states of New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut.      
          
As of September 30, 1995, the Company purchased 854,133 shares of Treasury  
Stock for $15,638,000 under the stock buyback program.  The stock buyback   
program, which had been approved by the Board of Directors during the      
second quarter, authorizes the Company to purchase up to 3 million shares.  
Additionally, the Company's Employee Stock Ownership Plan has purchased     
more than 200,000 shares in open market transactions since the buyback      
program was announced.          
          
Also in the third quarter, the Company received state regulatory approval   
regarding the elimination of interest based premium finance fees on new and  
renewal      
personal automobile insurance policies with effective dates on or after     
January 1, 1996.  As a result, premium finance fees as a source of the      
Company's liquidity will be reduced in 1996.  It is estimated      
that the overall impact will result in a 50% reduction in premium finance   
fee income in 1996.          
          
          
Effects of Inflation and Recession          
          
The Company generally is unable to recover the costs of inflation in its    
personal automobile insurance line since the premiums it charges are       
subject to state regulation.  The premium rates charged by the Company for  
personal automobile insurance are adjusted by the Commissioner only at      
annual intervals.  Such annual adjustments in premium rates may lag behind  
related cost increases.  Economic recessions will also have an impact upon  
the Company, primarily through the policyholder's election to decrease non- 
compulsory coverages afforded by the policy and decreased driving, each of  
which tends to decrease claims.          
          
          
          
          
- - - 14 -          
The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued)          
          
To the extent inflation and economic recession influence yields on          
investments, the Company is also affected.  As each of these environments   
affect current market rates of return, previously committed investments may  
rise or decline in value depending on the type and maturity of investment.  
          
Inflation and recession must also be considered by the Company in the       
creation and review of loss and LAE reserves since portions of these        
reserves are expected to be paid over extended periods of time.  The        
anticipated effect of economic conditions is implicitly considered when     
estimating liabilities for losses and LAE.  The importance of continually   
adjusting reserves is even more pronounced in periods of changing economic  
circumstances.          
          
Although there are continued indications of recovery, the Company expects   
that this economic recovery will be slow, especially in the Northeast       
during 1995.  Management is of the opinion, however, that this slow         
recovery will not have a material effect on future operating results.       
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
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The Commerce Group, Inc.          
          
          
PART II - OTHER INFORMATION          
          
          
          
ITEM 6.  EXHIBITS AND REPORTS ON FORM 8-K          
          
          
(a)  Form 8-K - none filed during the third quarter of 1995.          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
SIGNATURE          
          
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the   
registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the   
undersigned thereunto duly authorized.          
          
          
          
							 THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC.          
          
          
          
          
                                           RANDALL V. BECKER      __       
                                           Randall V. Becker          
                                Treasurer and Chief Accounting Officer     
          
          
          
          
          
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