MORGAN STANLEY EMERGING MARKETS DEBT FUND INC
N-30B-2, 1995-06-08
Previous: UMB WORLDWIDE FUND INC, N-30B-2, 1995-06-08
Next: MUNIVEST PENNSYLVANIA INSURED FUND, N-30D, 1995-06-08



<PAGE>
                                 MORGAN STANLEY
                        EMERGING MARKETS DEBT FUND, INC.

                 ---------------------------------------------

OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS

Barton M. Biggs               James W. Grisham
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD         VICE PRESIDENT
OF DIRECTORS                  Harold J. Schaaff, Jr.
Warren J. Olsen               VICE PRESIDENT
PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR        Joseph P. Stadler
John A. Levin                 VICE PRESIDENT
DIRECTOR                      Valerie Y. Lewis
William G. Morton, Jr.        SECRETARY
DIRECTOR                      Hilary D. Toole
Fergus Reid                   ASSISTANT SECRETARY
DIRECTOR                      James R. Rooney
Richard E. Salomon            TREASURER
DIRECTOR                      Timothy F. Osborne
John H.T. Wilson              ASSISTANT TREASURER
DIRECTOR

                 ---------------------------------------------
INVESTMENT ADVISER

Morgan Stanley Asset Management Inc.
1221 Avenue of the Americas
New York, New York 10020
            --------------------------------------------------------
ADMINISTRATOR
The United States Trust Company of New York
73 Tremont Street
Boston, Massachusetts 02108
            --------------------------------------------------------
CUSTODIANS
Morgan Stanley Trust Company
One Pierrepont Plaza
Brooklyn, New York 11201

The United States Trust Company of New York
770 Broadway
New York, New York 10003
            --------------------------------------------------------
SHAREHOLDER SERVICING AGENT
The First National Bank of Boston
Investor Relations Department
P.O. Box 644, Mail Stop 46-02-09
Boston, Massachusetts 02102-0644
(617) 575-2900
            --------------------------------------------------------
LEGAL COUNSEL
Rogers & Wells
200 Park Avenue
New York, New York 10166
            --------------------------------------------------------
INDEPENDENT ACCOUNTANTS

Price Waterhouse LLP
1177 Avenue of the Americas
New York, New York 10036

            --------------------------------------------------------

                                     [LOGO]

                                 MORGAN STANLEY
                                EMERGING MARKETS
                                DEBT FUND, INC.
                                     [LOGO]

                              FIRST QUARTER REPORT
                                 MARCH 31, 1995
                      MORGAN STANLEY ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
                               INVESTMENT ADVISER
<PAGE>
LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS
- - -------

The Mexican peso devaluation of December 20, 1994 set the tone for emerging debt
and  equity markets  in the new  year. The  first quarter saw  violent swings in
Brady bond prices in the developing countries. For the three-month period  ended
March  31, 1995, the Fund had a total  return based on net asset value per share
of -15.24%  versus a  return of  -11.08% for  the benchmark  JP Morgan  Emerging
Markets Bond Index (Index).

The  Mexican financial  crisis was brought  about by a  combination of economic,
financial and political factors. An excessive reliance on short-term debt linked
to the US dollar, current account deficits, an overvalued exchange rate, a loose
monetary policy,  political and  social tensions  and a  mismanaged  devaluation
produced  the  financial crisis  in Mexico,  leading  to withdrawals  by foreign
investors and  a run  on the  country's  foreign exchange  reserves. A  lack  of
refinancing  alternatives in a  hostile external environment  drove fixed income
and equity prices down as Mexico sought funds from its partners in NAFTA and the
multilateral agencies in order to avoid rescheduling its liabilities.

Domestic political dynamics determined the price behavior of assets for much  of
the  quarter. President Clinton's  bold move to bypass  Congress by tapping into
the Exchange  Stabilization Fund  to  provide Mexico  with  a potential  US$  20
billion  in  credits  and/or guarantees  was  a  turning point  in  the market's
evaluation of  potential default  risk.  The market  remained skeptical  as  the
Mexican  government  did  not  announce  specific  details  about  their revised
economic targets and measures to  stabilize their economy in a  post-devaluation
environment.  It was not until March 9 that a comprehensive new economic program
was unveiled. March 9 also saw the low in the Index.

A high  level  of systemic  risk  in the  market  produced high  volatility  and
correlations  across  all emerging  markets  countries. The  sell-off,  at times
indiscriminate, created  high correlations,  thereby  reducing the  benefits  of
diversification in fund portfolios. Reactions to political and economic news and
events  during periods of falling liquidity  caused price volatilities to remain
at the  high  end  of  their  ranges.  Constant  re-valuation  of  default  risk
exacerbated  by poor technical conditions (such as the need of broker/dealers to
hedge illiquid Eurobond and local currency debt with liquid Brady bonds and  the
unwinding  of structured  notes, as  prices hit  stop-loss levels)  caused asset
prices  to  decline  precipitously.  We  underestimated  the  herd  instinct  of
non-dedicated  emerging markets funds to lighten  up their positions in emerging
markets.

MEXICO

Fears of an unraveling of the economy and the financial system caused an  exodus
of  funds from Mexican  assets. Local markets assets,  Eurobonds and Brady bonds
were all hit. Some Mexican  corporate valuations approached liquidation  levels.
Price  declines in the  Brady bonds were  about 30%. As  the Mexican authorities
struggled to put  together a comprehensive  economic plan, the  peso became  the
barometer  of sentiment.  After the  peso had devalued  by about  70% in nominal
terms within a few weeks, we felt it was appropriate to add positions in several
types of Mexican assets: Brady  bonds, sovereign Eurobonds, Tesobonos at  yields
of 25-30% and short-term peso denominated paper (Cetes). These additions brought
our Mexican holdings at quarter-end to 18% of total investments.

BRAZIL

Brazil,  the best performing country in  1994, has disappointed greatly in 1995.
Market expectations of rapid constitutional reform facilitating deregulation  of
the  economy, fiscal reform  and faster privatization were  dashed as the reform
process got  bogged down  in  political gamesmanship  and  a perceived  lack  of
visible  leadership in  publicly shaping  the agenda  for reform.  The Plan Real
succeeded in bringing down  inflation, but a lack  of progress on fiscal  reform
left  the strong nominal exchange rate to bear too heavy a burden of adjustment.
Deterioration in  trade performance  in the  first  quarter, on  the back  of  a
booming  economy, forced the economic team to rethink their strong exchange rate
policy and  a  confused  attempt  at  a  controlled  devaluation  added  to  the
uncertainty in the market.

                                       2
<PAGE>
Revaluation  of market  expectations regarding the  pace of reform  and a market
adjustment to slightly  higher inflation  and weaker  trade performance  suggest
that  asset  prices will  react positively  to any  incremental progress  in the
reform process. Brazil  retains the top  weighting in our  portfolio at 20%.  We
look for a reversal in Brazil's relative underperformance for the first quarter.

ARGENTINA

Investors fearing a devaluation and/or sequestration of bank assets took capital
out  of the banking system and the country  on the heels of the Mexican debacle.
Although Argentina avoided the price declines in January, the straight jacket of
the Convertibility Plan brought  about a severe  contraction in domestic  credit
following the capital flight. High interest rates and the drying up of liquidity
forced  many  banks and  financial institutions,  in  an overbanked  country, to
liquidate portfolios of  liquid securities.  Some were even  suspended from  the
clearing system and put into receivership. Finance Minister Cavallo attempted to
tackle  the problem by addressing the growing  deficit in the fiscal accounts by
cutting expenditures and raising revenues.

Price deflation,  improvements in  the  trade accounts,  an eventual  return  of
capital  into  the  system,  the  strengthening  of  the  political  position of
President Menem in his attempts to further reform the remaining static  elements
in  the Argentine system and a decisive election victory are long-term positives
for Argentina. Price recovery from default  levels has been swift and  Argentina
was the best performer in March.

We  added to our Argentine position during  the broad market collapse. At 15% of
the total  investments of  the Fund,  Argentina  remains one  of our  top  three
weightings.  We  anticipate  a  re-election  of President  Menem  in  May  and a
continuation of the  market-oriented policies  under the  leadership of  Finance
Minister Cavallo.

VENEZUELA

Venezuelan  bonds  entered the  quarter at  already  high yields.  Its perceived
insularity from external shocks stemming from  a high level of foreign  reserves
and  its cash flows from the oil  sector attracted funds seeking refuge from the
"tequila effect." The domestic economy  continues to suffer from high  inflation
and  low growth  as the  government has  been unable  to resolve  the problem of
excessive liquidity  which arose  due  to the  bailout  of the  banking  system.
Continued  price  and  foreign  exchange controls  have  limited  investment and
growth. A lack of  progress on the  fiscal and monetary  fronts could result  in
further unraveling of the economy. The Venezuelan position has been reduced over
the quarter as funds have been added to Mexico.

OTHER

RUSSIAN  Vnesheconombank loans have performed poorly  for most of the quarter as
the market  remains skeptical  about Russia's  intentions in  moving forward  on
re-negotiating  its  commercial  bank  debt.  Additionally,  President Yeltsin's
weakened commitment  to reforms  and  the cost  of  the Chechnya  conflict  were
negative  forces  affecting  market sentiment.  On  the positive  side,  the IMF
program to stabilize  the ruble  and the  domestic economy  should introduce  an
element  of discipline into domestic  economic policy formation and performance.
Progress in negotiations  with official  creditors and  commercial banks  should
provide support to prices in the next quarter.

MOROCCO Tranche A loans lost about 13% over the quarter. 1994 will prove to be a
hard  act to follow  in terms of  economic performance. A  drought in 1995 could
result in lower growth, higher inflation and worsened foreign trade performance.
However, continued progress  in privatization and  a relatively modest  external
debt  burden  should  permit  the  country to  fund  emergency  food  imports to
alleviate the supply shock. We  had 9% of the total  investments of the Fund  in
Morocco  at quarter-end and look to gradually reduce the position on the asset's
strength.

ECUADOR is the latest entrant into the Brady club, having issued Brady bonds  on
February  28, 1995. Competent handling of  the exchange rate and monetary policy
at the time of the border conflict

                                       3
<PAGE>
with Peru  improved the  market's perception  of economic  policy-making in  the
country.  Decisive actions  to restore fiscal  equilibrium aided  by buoyant oil
prices and potential privatization revenues  should attract investment in  their
bonds.

We expect PANAMA to be the next Brady country, and anticipate bonds to be issued
before  the end  of 1995.  We continue to  hold 5%  in Panamanian non-performing
loans.

MARKET OUTLOOK

The first quarter crash has sobered both policy-makers and investors in emerging
markets. The central lesson learned from  December 20, 1994 was that the  market
will  exact a severe  penalty upon countries which  stray from prudent, balanced
macroeconomic  policies.  We  are  impressed  with  the  steps  taken  by  other
countries,  most notably Argentina, in immediate response to the Mexican crisis.
We believe the long-term fundamentals of  emerging markets are intact, the  past
three months have instilled discipline and valuations are most compelling.

Sincerely,

             [SIG]
Barton M. Biggs
CHAIRMAN

          [SIG]
Paul Ghaffari
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
April 20, 1995

                                       4
<PAGE>
INVESTMENTS (UNAUDITED)
(Showing Percentage of Total Value of Investments)

- - ----------

MARCH 31, 1995

<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
                                           FACE
                                         AMOUNT          VALUE
                                          (000)          (000)
- - ---------------------------------------------------------
- - ------------
<C> <S>                            <C>           <C>
DEBT INSTRUMENTS (87.7%)
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
ALGERIA (2.4%)
LOAN AGREEMENTS
 +++ Algeria Loan Agreement 1989
     7.625%, 12/31/96                FRF 27,830   U.S.$  1,383
 +++ Algeria Reprofiled Loan
     Agreement 'A' 1992 8.3125%,
     12/31/00                      U.S.$ 10,220          2,810
                                                 -------------
                                                         4,193
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
ARGENTINA (15.4%)
BONDS
    Compania Austral de
     Inversiones (Convertible)
     7.00%, 3/7/96                  U.S.$ 1,000          1,249
 +++ Republic of Argentina 'L'
     7.3125%, 3/31/05                    35,450         19,232
    Republic of Argentina Local
     Markets Trust 13.375%,
     8/15/01                              8,760          6,110
                                                 -------------
                                                        26,591
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
BRAZIL (20.1%)
BONDS
 +++ Federative Republic of Brazil
     'C' Bond 8.00%, 4/15/14 PIK    U.S.$17,978          6,696
 +++ Federative Republic of Brazil
     'C' Bond "Euro" 8.00%,
     4/15/14 PIK                         39,984         14,894
 +++ Federative Republic of Brazil
     New Money Bond 6.75%,
     4/15/09                             17,750          8,032
 +++ Federative Republic of Brazil
     Par Bond 'Y3' 6.6875%,
     4/15/24                             14,250          5,166
                                                 -------------
                                                        34,788
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
BULGARIA (3.5%)
BONDS
 +++ The Republic of Bulgaria
     Discount Bond 'A' 7.5625%,
     7/28/24                        U.S.$ 3,549          1,517
 +++ The Republic of Bulgaria
     Discount Bond 'A' "Euro"
     7.5625%, 7/28/24                     2,000            855
 +++ The Republic of Bulgaria
     Discount Bond 'B' 8.0625%,
     7/28/24                                880            376
 +++ The Republic of Bulgaria
     Interest Arrears Bond
     7.5625%, 7/28/11                     3,024          1,036
 +++ The Republic of Bulgaria
     Interest Arrears Bond "Euro"
     7.5625%, 7/28/11                     6,648          2,277
                                                 -------------
                                                         6,061
                                                 -------------
</TABLE>

- - -----------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------

<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
                                           FACE
                                         AMOUNT          VALUE
                                          (000)          (000)

- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
<C> <S>                            <C>           <C>
ECUADOR (3.4%)
BONDS
 +++ Republic of Ecuador Discount
     Bond 7.25%, 2/28/25            U.S.$ 7,792   U.S.$  3,526
 +++ Republic of Ecuador Eligible
     Interest Bond 7.6875%,
     12/21/04                               706            349
 +++ Republic of Ecuador Par Bond
     3.00%, 2/28/25                          65             18
 +++ Republic of Ecuador Past Due
     Interest Bond 7.25%, 2/27/15         9,041          2,079
                                                 -------------
                                                         5,972
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
INDIA (1.7%)
BOND
    Saurashtra Cement Co. 17.00%,
     11/27/98                        INR    940          2,992
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
INDONESIA (0.9%)
BOND
    Polysindo Eka Perkasa 13.00%,
     6/15/01                        U.S.$ 1,600          1,472
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
MEXICO (5.8%)
BOND
    Petroleos Mexicanos 8.625%,
     12/1/23                       U.S.$ 14,700          7,276
                                                 -------------
LOAN AGREEMENTS
 +++ United Mexican States Multi-
     Year Refinancing Agreement
     7.125%, 12/31/06                     1,991          1,080
 +++ United Mexican States Old New
     Money Loans 7.4125% -
     7.625%, 3/20/05                      3,207          1,740
                                                 -------------
                                                         2,820
                                                 -------------
                                                        10,096
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
MOROCCO (8.8%)
LOAN AGREEMENTS
 +++ Kingdom of Morocco
     Restructuring and
     Consolidation Agreement `A'
     1990 8.5175%, 12/31/00
     (Participation: Salomon
     Brothers)                      JPY 792,741          4,473
 +++ Kingdom of Morocco
     Restructuring and
     Consolidation Agreement 'A'
     1990 7.375%, 1/1/09
     (Participation: Goldman
     Sachs, JP Morgan, Salomon
     Brothers)                     U.S.$ 18,500         10,822
                                                 -------------
                                                        15,295
                                                 -------------
</TABLE>

- - -----------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------

                                       5
<PAGE>

<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
                                           FACE
                                         AMOUNT          VALUE
                                          (000)          (000)
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
<C> <S>                            <C>           <C>
NIGERIA (3.5%)
BOND
    Central Bank of Nigeria Par
     Bond 6.25%, 11/15/20
     (including 13,750 warrants)   U.S.$  8,000  U.S.$   3,060
                                                 -------------
LOAN AGREEMENT
    Central Bank of Nigeria
     Promissory Note 8.00%
     annuity, 1/5/10                     11,000          2,970
                                                 -------------
                                                         6,030
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
PANAMA (4.8%)
LOAN AGREEMENTS
    Republic of Panama Refinanced
     Loan Agreement, 9/30/97        U.S.$ 1,000            395
    Republic of Panama
     Unrestructured Loans                19,900          7,861
                                                 -------------
                                                         8,256
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
PERU (0.6%)
LOAN AGREEMENT
    Republic of Peru - Petroperu
     Working Capital Loan           U.S.$ 2,000            980
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
POLAND (2.4%)
BOND
 +++ The Polish People's Republic
     Past
     Due Interest Bond 3.25%,
     10/27/14                      U.S.$ 10,325          4,156
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
RUSSIA (4.7%)
LOAN AGREEMENTS
    Bank for Foreign Economic
     Affairs                       U.S.$ 35,000          7,962
    Bank for Foreign Economic
     Affairs 'C'                      DEM 1,000            165
                                                 -------------
                                                         8,127
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
VENEZUELA (9.7%)
BONDS
 +++ Republic of Venezuela Debt
     Conversion Bond 'DL'
     7.6875%, 12/18/07             U.S.$ 16,500          6,971
 +++ Republic of Venezuela Front-
     Loaded Interest Reduction
     Bond `A' 8.875%, 3/31/07            15,500          6,587
 +++ Republic of Venezuela Front-
     Loaded Interest Reduction
     Bond `B' 8.875%, 3/31/07             7,500          3,188
                                                 -------------
                                                        16,746
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
TOTAL DEBT INSTRUMENTS
  (Cost U.S.$183,255)                                  151,755
                                                 -------------
</TABLE>

- - -----------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------

<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
                                           FACE
                                         AMOUNT          VALUE
                                          (000)          (000)

- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
<C> <S>                            <C>           <C>
SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS (12.2%)
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
MEXICO (11.8%)
MEXICAN CETES
    5/18/95                          MXN 12,670   U.S.$  1,689
    6/1/95                               11,944          1,550
    7/6/95                                5,872            714
    8/3/95                                6,130            710
    8/17/95                              19,677          2,218
    8/24/95                              21,750          2,432
    8/31/95                               3,675            406
    2/22/96                              12,093          1,040
                                                 -------------
                                                        10,759
                                                 -------------
MEXICAN TESOBONOS
    7/27/95                         U.S.$ 1,100            993
    9/7/95                               10,000          8,721
                                                 -------------
                                                         9,714
                                                 -------------
                                                        20,473
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
UNITED STATES (0.4%)
REPURCHASE AGREEMENT
    U.S. Trust, 6.00%, dated
     3/31/95, due 4/3/95, to be
     repurchased at U.S. $750,
     collateralized by U.S. $710
     Government National Mortgage
     Association 9.50% to 10.00%,
     due 12/15/09 to 1/15/10,
     valued at U.S. $764            U.S.$   750            750
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
TOTAL SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS
    (Cost U.S.$24,132)                                  21,223
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
FOREIGN CURRENCY ON DEPOSIT WITH CUSTODIAN (0.1%)
    French Franc                     FRF    353             73
    Indian Rupee                     INR  2,417             77
    Japanese Yen                     JPY     61              1
                                                 -------------
    (Cost U.S.$145)                                        151
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
TOTAL INVESTMENTS (100.0%)
    (Cost U.S.$207,532)                                173,129
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
OTHER ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
    Other Assets                   U.S.$ 17,627
    Liabilities                         (30,150)       (12,523)
                                   ------------  -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
NET ASSETS
    Applicable to 16,055,620 issued and
     outstanding U.S.$.01 par value shares
     (100,000,000 shares authorized)             U.S.$ 160,606
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE
                                                  U.S.$  10.00
                                                 -------------
- - --------------------------------------------------------------
- - -------------
<FN>
 +++ Variable/floating rate or step coupon security - rate
     disclosed is as of March 31, 1995
PIK--Payment-in-Kind
DEM--German Deutsche Mark
MXN--Mexican New Peso
</TABLE>

                                       6


© 2022 IncJournal is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission